Analysts say Sony not on a path to dominance

DFC, who I believe previously forecast a solid future for the PS3, has since changed their tune. These are analysts which means speculation, but the article is honest and doesn't seem to take sides. Here's some choice quotes from the article:

The problem the PlayStation 3 faced at launch was a $600 price tag and very limited software library. In contrast the competition was exciting new products at half the price and a more compelling software library. The Wii had buzz, brand, price and representation by most of the major Nintendo franchises in the first six months.

In terms of market valuation, Nintendo is not simply competing with Sony Consumer Electronics, but the consumer electronics/media giant that is Sony Corporation.

As Jack Tretton put it, it is hard to evaluate a product designed to last a decade or more based on the first 18 months.

The challenge Sony faces is that competition in the video game market is not sitting still and for this generation Microsoft and Nintendo have clearly turned up the heat. There is no winning by default in this market.

The video game market is simply becoming diversified in multiple respects. Consumers are increasingly willing to buy multiple systems for multiple purposes. This means arguing who will be first or second is becoming increasingly irrelevant.

This seems about right to me. However, I'm noticing that owning too many consoles does leave me in gaming-overload. Aside from my obvious preference, I've pretty much dropped gaming on all Playstation platforms. I just don't have the time and there isn't any compelling software to take my already limited time away from the 360 and the Wii. By this, I mean the PS2, PSP, and PS3. I haven't even played through God of War 2 yet because I've been focusing on the 360 as of late. When Metroid comes for the Wii, it will take my time. It's not that I don't want to use my PS products, I just have to cut something out, and without tantalizing titles, I just can't waste too much time digging through the muck.

I think Nintendo will have a slight edge this time around, but overall the systems will remain about even.